In the last decade the world has seen a sharp increase in food prices, moving many millions of people below the poverty line and dramatically increasing the number of people being undernourished and dying of hunger. Especially developing countries where the population spends a large proportion of their income on food (50-90%) are vulnerable for even the slightest increase in food prices. In ever greater detail it becomes clear that the damages of climate change will be disproportionately concentrated in developing countries (Cline 2007). While Developing Countries are not at the base of the causes of climate change and at the same time least equipped to mobilize the means to adapt to the climate change effects. The secondary effects of climate change (like famines, social unrest over rising food prices, conflicts over water resources, refugees, migration, health related effects, etc) make sure the developed world cannot close it’s eyes for the global impacts of it’s carbon heritage but will be confronted with it’s actual cost.
• 1.1 billion people go to bed on hunger every night, 750 million from Asia
• More than 1.5 billion people live without electricity
• More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh water
• About 800 million people chronically undernourished
• 2 million children die per year from diarrhea
• 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases,
• In every 6 second, one child die due to hunger and malnourishment,
• 2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels,
The estimation of future temperature and precipitation figures has three main components.
First the observed data until today,
Second the projected green house gas emissions that cause climate changes,
And third the way these emissions will affect future temperature and precipitation.
Where the first is gathered by several thousands of weather station around the world, the second and third are based upon several assumptions. Population growth, economic development, energy intensity, domestic energy use, share of renewable energy, new energy technologies among many other factors all influence future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Basically all climate research focuses on systematic application of a set of emission assumptions on a set of systematic climatic model assumptions. Therefore it should at all times be kept in mind that climate research and impact assessments over several decades is highly speculative and should be treated as well with caution but also with a high sense of urgency.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 2000 in its third assessment report a new set of emission scenarios to explore future developments in climate change.
Impacts of Climate change
There are many interlinked impacts of climate change. Small changes in average temperature and
precipitation will have strong effects on already stressed ecosystems.
Many different impacts of Climate Change can be expected to occur in coming years like:
-water availability, change the quality of the water [Algal blooms etc.]
-change in precipitation
-longer or shorter dry periods or rainy seasons and irregular rainy patterns,
-more extreme water events (flash floods)
-changes in glacier run off, melting ice in polar regions,
-reduction in the quality and availability of natural water supplies,
-shoreline change, rise of sea water level and sea erosion,
-changes to fisheries habitats and damage fish stocks,
-health related impacts due to scarcity of drinking water,
-spread of infectious diseases (malaria, cholera, dengue, yellow fever)
-malnutrition due to crop failures
-respiratory disorders
-agriculture and food security
-decreasing food supplies
-land degradation, pollution of water bodies,
-change in the length and days of precipitation
-occurrence and length of droughts or other extreme weather events
Climate change effects on agricultural & fisheries production:
While at first sight projected changes seem to be in the range of just 2-4 degrees Celsius and thus
appear small, the effects however of an increase in the average temperature and precipitation will be very large. While minor increases in temperatures will initially have positive effects on agricultural production in the developed world, it will have devastating effects in regions where temperatures are nowadays already outside of the optimum temperature range for several crops. Food production in regions under stress are extremely vulnerable for small yearly fluctuations. These regions will also see an increase in the number and severity of weather extremes. Droughts will not only occur more often but will also last longer. In several African countries there already is a 50% change to suffer a drought each year, while especially these regions are very likely to see these figures.
Increase as precipitation is expected to go down and temperatures to rise. Especially rain fed
agricultural food production is vulnerable for drought. Over a period of 18 years 8 countries (all in Africa) experienced 9 or more droughts. Meaning that not even projecting climate change effects the chance is already 50% or more.
The negative impact will disproportionately be located in developing countries. While at the same time the world population is projected to grow from around 6 billion to 9.2 billion by 2050. And there are already 1.1 billion people undernourished today. In certain regions (especially Africa) cereal production could decrease as much as 50% by 2080. This is decrease in yield is only based on climate change effects and not taking into account other negative impacts like pests, extreme weather events, erosion or land degradation.
Impact of Climate Change on Fisheries Sector:
“ Climate Change from dramatic alternations in ocean circulation affecting perhaps a three quarter of key fishing grounds up to the emerging concern of ocean acidification,” Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director, Climate change threatens coastal infrastructure, food and water supplies and the health of people across the world. It will add significantly to pressures on fish stocks. This is as much a development and economic issue as it is an environmental one. Millions of people in developing countries derive their livelihoods from fishing while around 2.6 billion people get their protein from seafood. Half the world’s fish catch is caught along Continental shelves in an area of less than 7.5% of the globe’s seas and oceans. An area of 10-15% of the world’s seas and oceans cover most of the commercial fishing grounds.
There the 80- 100% of the world’s coral reefs may suffer annual bleaching events by 2080 under global warming scenarios. Those at particular risk are in the Western Pacific; the Indian Ocean; the Persian Gulf; the Middle East and in the Caribbean
Over 90% of the world’s temperate and tropical coasts will be heavily impacted by 2050. Over 80% of marine pollution comes from the land. Marine areas at particular risk of increased pollution are Southeast and East Asia. Climate change may slow down the ocean thermo haline circulation and thus the continental shelf “flushing and cleaning” mechanisms, known as dense shelf water cascading, over the next 100 years. These processes are crucial to water quality and nutrient cycling and deep water production in at least 75% of the world’s major fishing grounds.
Dead zones, area of de-oxygenated water, are increasing as a result of pollution from urban and agriculture areas. There are an estimated 200 temporary or permanent ‘dead zones’ up from around 150 in 2003. Up to 80% of the world’s primary fish catch species are exploited beyond or close to their harvesting capacity. Advances in technology, alongside subsidies, means the world’s fishing capacity is 2.5 times bigger than that needed to sustainable harvest fisheries
“Further evidence of this warming signal is seen in the appearance of a Pacific planktonic plant in the Northwest Atlantic for this first time in 800,000 years by transfer across the top of Canada due to the rapid melting of the Arctic in 1998,” Dr. Christian Nellemann.
It was critical that existing stresses were also addressed too in order to conserve fish stocks and coral reefs in a climate constrained world. “There was growing evidence that coral reefs recover from bleaching better in cleaner, less polluted waters”. Says Stefan Hain -UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre. “With a one-degree rise in sea temperature, the Caribbean's fishing industry could virtually collapse. The coral reefs at this time are at the upper limits at which they can stay alive if no action is taken to increase the ability to withstand higher temperatures. That has negative feedback because reefs provide the habitats for all of our marine life, so if you destroy the reefs, the fish will migrate," says Kenrick Leslie –Executive Director, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize,
Bottom trawling is among the most damaging and unsustainable fishing practices at the scales often seen today. Alien invasive species, which can out-compete and dislodge native ones, are increasingly associated with the polluted, over harvested and damaged fishing grounds. The concentration of ‘aliens’ matches with some precision the world’s major shipping routes. For example, Piranha Spp. has been evaded the fresh water bodies in SL which are heavily polluted areas such as Bolgoda lake etc.
Some Affected fish species:
Parrot Fish, Tuna and Dolphin would not survive a one-degree rise in sea water temperature and would, therefore, Migrate to water bodies further North” according to the research carried out by Kenrick Leslie, Climatic Specialist and executive director of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre in Belmopan, Belize. The parrot fish plays a dual role, as it is one of the most effective cleaners of coral reefs.
"By foraging on the coral reef, it keeps algae growth in check, so that the algae do not overpower the coral reef and cause it to die. The disappearance of the parrot fish would, therefore, be a loss not only to the palates of seafood lovers, but to the reefs, which would be even more vulnerable to attacks from various forms of algae, which are increasing due to other bad environmental practices” says Andre Kong – Jamaica Leading Fish Expert through his research activities.
In Sri Lanka, some endemic fish species like Labeo fishery, [Gadaya] have been hardly found due to eco system degradation in the Mahaweli development area. We experience, the death of large fish stocks every year at Negombo lagoon due to bad environmental conditions and as a result of heavy algal bloom.
Fisher people at Negombo lagoon have affected with the shelled aquatic species such as Saccostrea spp. [Kavati] heavy growth after tsunami. Fishers can not caste their nets and can not walk at the lagoon due to high growth of Kavati and gradually increasing the volume and the area of spread at bottom of the lagoon.
Some other effects related to Climate Change:
• Biodiversity may decrease as plants and animals struggle to adapt to the new conditions of changed rainfall patterns, increased temperature and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Increased ocean temperatures would be especially detrimental to sensitive marine organisms such as corals, which may bleach resulting in overall reef degradation.
A United Nations panel of more than 2,000 scientists has predicted that average sea levels are likely to rise between 9 and 88 cm (3.5 to 35 inches) by 2100, mainly because of a build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil and coal.
• Coastal and Marine Resources will be affected by changes to the physical environment, such as increased coastal erosion and also by ecosystem changes such as bleached coral reefs. In SL, the North/Western as well as the southern coasts has been badly affected with the sea erosion. Number of families have been displaced and no where to go for resettlements. There should be a mitigation action by the government, unless people find their own ways to settle as a community. So, with the sea level rise the situation will increase rapidly and coastal communities will be the immediate victims of the sea erosion.
• Economies of the Asia and the Pacific will be affected as a result of impacts on all the mentioned sectors. Declining natural resource bases, increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, altered rainfall and seasonal patterns, and declining health in human populations will pose new challenges to almost all the economies.
Some Adaptation and Mitigation measures for Climate Change in the fisheries sector
Now that climate change negotiations are closing in Copenhagen at UNFCC COP 15 we should think of how fisheries sector can contribute to improving the environment. The sector should bear some moral responsibility to reduce the impact of carbon dioxide emissions, in particular. We can concretely contribute to both mitigation and adaptation measures.
There are at least four mitigation measures that we can think of.
Firstly, we should seek support to all types of fishing vessel operations that are based on alternative sources of fuel such as wind, solar power and sea waves. We should demand improvements in design and in making available to the fisheries sector at no cost advancements in wind and solar energy. [RENEWABLE ENERGY for SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE]
Secondly, the fishing sector should scale down use of fossil fuel and seek use of propulsion techniques that are more fuel efficient. In this context, use of natural gas, liquidified gas, etc, should be considered in fishing vessels. Fishing vessels should be granted one-time subsidy to replace all fuel-guzzling truck engines with new fuel efficient engines. We should make sure that such replacements are confined only to active fishing vessels. We should see to it that there is some energy balance between input costs in catching and supplying fish to the market and the quantum of output, independent of market price. In this sense, there should be a campaign against fish for the highest income group who can pay any price to show off their consumer power.
Thirdly, we should also reduce the total number of fishing trips and fishing days so that total fuel consumption in the fisheries sector is brought down by, say, 20 per cent.
Fourthly, we should campaign to stop indiscriminate dumping of broken pieces of nylon-webbed fishing gear at sea. The sector should also see if it can look for gear material made from non-hydrocarbon sources. Here again, we should seek subsidies to promote use of such material in the fabrication of webbing.
We should also think of how fish processing and marketing can reduce their dependence on carbon dioxide emissions. Do we, for example, need aircrafts to supply sushmi-grade tuna to the Japanese market? Are there ways to reduce the carbon footprint of the transport industry between the fishing vessel and the final consumer, wherever he or she is?
In terms of adaptation, we have to see how to ensure better protection from coastal erosion, from high rainfall precipitation leading to flooding of fishers' habitats, latitudinal shift of fishing grounds (this may involve training in new fishing techniques, travelling greater distances for fishers to fish and fish vendors to procure fish for marketing, etc).
The sector also needs to join the campaign against acidification of oceans that might have implications for bone formation of fish as well as the survival of coral reefs.
These are some of the adaptation and mitigation aspects that we could thought off.
Whether the global warming is a natural or man-made phenomenon, there could still be reduction in fossil fuel dependence. For Healing the Mother Earth Al Gore, former US vice-president and Nobel Peace Laureate says, “My country is the largest source of pollution and most responsible for creating the problem. There is need for a change in the US policy on climate and whoever comes to the White House after the November 2008, presidential polls will have to take necessary steps.” However, US did not agree to Kyoto protocol to be adopted after serious advocacy campaign of the developing countries and INGOS concerned at Copenhagen last December. What will happen next is the question today. No consensus reached at Copenhagen. What we could see is to repeatedly experience the disasters and destruction of the life of the earth. As Thomas Kocherry, the former coordinator of the World Forum of Fisher people says, the disasters come one after other like tsunami, earth quakes, floods, cyclones, ice falling in the gulf, coldest climate in china etc. are linked with climate change. All these are connected with Marine Life, one way or another. Unless we take these seriously & they go out of our hands, we become helpless, which will lead to the total destruction of the whole planet. Can we be idle any longer”? No, we need to do our part while debating and advocating others to do the right thing. We agree with Wangari Maathai Nobel prize winner from Kenya when she says “we need to plant trees all over as part of our commitment in all the nations by all, side by side with working on the causes of war”. What we do today will help to survival of the future generations of tomorrow.
Herman Kumara,
06 April, 2010
